The human security risks of today are the hard security challenges of tomorrow. There are no hard security solutions to them.

Dr. Florian Krampe
Director, Climate Change and Risk Programme
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

In Singapore 28 September – 2 October 2026 for DLD at the Asia New Vision Forum.

Why this matters now

The World Meteorological Organization expects the strongest El Niño since records began. Southeast Asia has months, not years, to prepare. Rice, water and energy systems across the region are exposed at the same time, and the institutions that would normally absorb the shock are the ones under most pressure.

Written with Mely Caballero-Anthony (RSIS, NTU Singapore): A super El Niño is here and ASEAN is running out of time, Nikkei Asia, August 2026.

Work in the region

RSIS Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO), Singapore. ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation. JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute, Tokyo. Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity. Hiroshima University, where he served as Specially Appointed Professor. Kyoto University and the Kajima Institute of International Peace.

Quoted and published across the region in CNA, Nikkei Asia, Asahi Shimbun, Hindustan Times and Reuters.

What I can bring to a room

Keynote: We are building a fortress on quicksand

Defence and infrastructure spending is rising worldwide, and it is being laid on a physical baseline that is moving. Thawing ground buckles foundations. Warming ocean layers scramble sonar. The argument is that climate has to be the baseline assumption of a decision, not a paragraph in chapter six. For conference plenaries and business audiences. 30–45 minutes.

Keynote: The super El Niño and the security of the region

Rice, water, hydropower and fisheries come under pressure in the same season, and across borders. The danger is not the drought itself; it is ten governments managing one shortage separately. This keynote sets out what regional institutions would have to do differently, and how quickly. Built on the August work with Mely Caballero-Anthony. For regional policy audiences, food and energy companies, and investors with ASEAN exposure. 30–45 minutes.

Closed-door briefing: what this means for your exposure

A working session rather than a talk. Where the physical risk sits in your portfolio, your supply chain or your area of responsibility, and what governance would have to look like to hold it. For boards, investment teams, and defence or policy staff. 60–90 minutes, under Chatham House Rule.

The argument, in twelve minutes

TEDxMidAtlantic, Washington DC.

Get in touch

For keynotes, briefings, media or a conversation while I am in Singapore. Tell me the date, the room, and what you need the audience to leave with.

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