The human security risks of today are the hard security challenges of tomorrow. There are no hard security solutions to them.
Dr. Florian Krampe
Director, Climate Change and Risk Programme
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Why this matters now
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a very strong El Niño, peaking between October and January. Southeast Asia produces the strongest and most reliable El Niño signal of any region on earth. Drought is forecast from Indonesia and Malaysia through the Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea.
The instruments to manage it already exist. The funding and the coordination do not.
Written with Mely Caballero-Anthony (RSIS, NTU Singapore): A super El Niño is here and ASEAN is running out of time, Nikkei Asia, 28 August 2026.
Work in the region
RSIS Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO), Singapore. ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation. JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute, Tokyo. Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity. Hiroshima University, where I served as Specially Appointed Professor. Kyoto University and the Kajima Institute of International Peace.
Quoted and published across the region in CNA, Nikkei Asia, Asahi Shimbun, Hindustan Times and Reuters.
What I can bring to a room
Keynote: The super El Niño and the security of the region
A fifth to a quarter of global maritime trade passes the Strait of Malacca. Malaysia handles about thirteen per cent of the world’s back-end semiconductor manufacturing; Indonesia produces two-thirds of its nickel. All of it depends on water and stable power. The region’s economic weight has grown faster than its capacity to absorb a shared climate shock, and only eight per cent of last year’s disaster losses were insured. This keynote sets out what a region with the right instruments and the wrong funding should do before the peak arrives. Built on the August work with Mely Caballero-Anthony for Nikkei Asia. For regional policy audiences, manufacturers, and investors with ASEAN exposure. 30–45 minutes.
Keynote: We are building a fortress on quicksand
Defence and infrastructure spending is rising worldwide, and it is being laid on a physical baseline that is moving. Thawing ground buckles foundations. Warming ocean layers scramble sonar. The argument is that climate has to be the baseline assumption of a decision, not a paragraph in chapter six. For conference plenaries and business audiences. 30–45 minutes.
Closed-door briefing: what this means for your exposure
A working session rather than a talk. Where the physical risk sits in your portfolio, your supply chain or your area of responsibility, and what governance would have to look like to hold it. For boards, investment teams, and defence or policy staff. 60–90 minutes, under the Chatham House Rule.
The argument, in twelve minutes
TEDxMidAtlantic, Washington DC.
Get in touch
For keynotes, briefings or media. Tell me the date, the room, and what you need the audience to leave with.
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