Dr. Florian Krampe

Director, Climate Change and Risk Programme, SIPRI | Keynote Speaker on Climate Security and Geopolitical Risk

The physics of the planet are changing. So are the rules of war, peace, and power.

Dr. Florian Krampe has spent seventeen years mapping where climate change, conflict, and geopolitics collide — advising the UN Security Council, governments, and the business sector on what comes next. He delivers systemic risk intelligence that organizations can act on.

In Singapore 28 September – 2 October for the Asia New Vision Forum. Speaking and briefings in Asia.

Global Media Track

Briefings delivered to the UN Security Council, NATO, the African Union, the OSCE, the European Union’s Political and Security Committee, the Swedish Defence Commission, and corporate leadership groups across Europe and Asia.

Flagship Briefing

The Other Story of Climate Change: Moving Beyond Inevitable Conflict

TEDxMidAtlantic, Washington D.C. — The conventional climate-conflict narrative strips human societies of agency. This briefing challenges deterministic models and outlines how shifting environmental parameters can be systematically operationalized as baseline frameworks for structural cooperation, resource equity, and international stability.

Strategic Briefing Frameworks

Asset Defense & Capital Reallocation

The Quicksand Paradox: Restructuring Capital in a Liquefying Geophysical Baseline

Global public and military defense spending is moving toward a historic 5% allocation benchmark. Yet, this capital deployment rests on a structural error: building fortresses on a baseline that is physically liquefying. Thawing permafrost buckles early-warning radar foundations; extreme thermal layers scramble sub-surface naval sonar acoustics. Organizations are over-capitalizing reactive responses while systematically under-investing in the structural parameters required to make those investments resilient.

The Takeaway: An executive capital audit framework. Leadership leaves with a diagnostic metric to identify infrastructure exposure and protect stranded assets before planetary physics force a market correction.
Target Circuit: Central Banks, Re-Insurance Boards, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Institutional Investment Forums.

Operational Risk & Supply Chain Integrity

Why Green Engineering Fails Without Governance-First Architecture

Treating the global energy transition as a localized supply chain adjustment or a technological software update is a profound strategic blind spot. Displacing traditional industrial extraction without structural governance-first architecture does not secure operations — it triggers deep political grievance, systemic corruption, and paralyzed procurement channels. Technology changes energy metrics; only institutional governance safeguards the transition environment.

The Takeaway: A macro-level risk stress test designed to decouple critical mineral supply chains from regional instability trajectories.
Target Circuit: Industrial Base Conglomerates, Energy Transmitters, Automotive & Tech C-Suites.

Strategic Foresight & Data Integration

Epistemic Blindness: Stress-Testing Strategic Assumptions Against Non-Linear Shocks

Modern predictive algorithms are fundamentally blind to non-linear physical shifts because they extrapolate from historical data baselines. When oceanographic conditions change faster than detection hardware can update, entire security frameworks fail simultaneously. The primary threat to global tracking is not state aggression; it is data failure born from applying 20th-century climate models to 21st-century risk systems.

The Takeaway: A strategic foresight masterclass mapping out how to build adaptive data pipelines and mitigate algorithmic vulnerability.
Target Circuit: Global Security Summits, AI & Risk Modeling Panels, Thought Leadership Plenaries.

Adaptive Leadership & Operational Trust

The Trust Architecture: Navigating the Relational Dynamics of Compounding Shocks

In volatile markets, operational disruption rarely stems from machine failure — it stems from the breakdown of localized social contracts over resource access. Moving from post-conflict operational zones to intergovernmental ministries, this briefing delivers a clear strategic truth: building institutional trust and environmental cooperation is an absolute operational necessity, not a moral luxury.

The Takeaway: A structural blueprint for adaptive negotiation, conflict-sensitive resource allocation, and maintaining supply continuity in fractured spaces.
Target Circuit: Executive Leadership Retreats, Global Operations Directors, Cross-Border Crisis Teams.

About Florian

Florian Krampe is an international security strategist specializing in the structural intersection where environmental volatility meets hard conflict, geopolitics, and capital allocation. As Director of the Climate Change and Risk Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), he translates seventeen years of empirical field research into macro-level risk intelligence for sovereign states and global institutions.

He has presented briefings and advised the UN Security Council, NATO, the African Union, the European Union, the OSCE, and corporate leadership groups across Europe and Asia. His research has been published in flagship peer-reviewed journals including International Affairs, World Development, and Global Environmental Politics.

His strategic analysis on infrastructure vulnerability and defense asset degradation has been featured across premium global media platforms, including the Financial Times, The New York Times, The Guardian, The Washington Post, Reuters, Nikkei Asia, and Foreign Policy.

He is currently completing his upcoming volume, Kinetic Earth: How a Changing Planet is Rewriting the Rules of War, Peace and Power. Dr. Krampe holds a PhD from Uppsala University, where he maintains his affiliation with the Department of Peace and Conflict Research.

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